Recently several researchers have proposed various methods to build intelligent stock trading and portfolio management systems using rapid advancements in artificial intelligence including machine learning techniques. However, existing technical analysis-based stock price prediction studies primarily depend on price change or price-related moving average patterns, and information related to trading volume is only used as an auxiliary indicator. This study focuses on the effect of changes in trading volume on stock prices and proposes a novel method for short-term stock price predictions based on trading volume patterns. Two rapid volume decrease patterns are defined based on the combinations of multiple volume moving averages. The dataset filtered using these patterns is learned through the supervised learning of neural networks. Experimental results based on the data from Korea Composite Stock Price Index and Korean Securities Dealers Automated Quotation, show that the proposed prediction system can achieve a trading performance that significantly exceeds the market average.

In this study, we propose a deep neural generative model for predicting daily stock price movements given news articles. Approaches involving conventional technical analysis have been investigated to identify certain patterns in past price movements, which in turn helps to predict future price movements. However, the financial market is highly sensitive to specific events, including corporate buyouts, product releases, and the like. Therefore, recent research has focused on modeling relationships between these events that appear in the news articles and future price movements; however, a very large number of news articles are published daily, each article containing rich information, which results in overfitting to past price movements used for parameter adjustment. Given the above, we propose a model based on a generative model of news articles that includes price movement as a condition, thereby avoiding excessive overfitting thanks to the nature of the generative model. We evaluate our proposed model using historical price movements of Nikkei 225 and Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index, confirming that our model predicts future price movements better than such conventional classifiers as support vector machines and multilayer perceptrons. Further, our proposed model extracts significant words from news articles that are directly related to future stock price movements.