Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis for Systems with Nonexponential Failure Components

Tetsushi YUGE; Shigeru YANAGI

doi:10.1587/transfun.E96.A.1730

Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis for Systems with Nonexponential Failure Components

Tetsushi YUGE, Shigeru YANAGI

Full Text Views

0

Share
Cite this

Summary :

A method of calculating the top event probability of a fault tree, where dynamic gates and repeated events are included and the occurrences of basic events follow nonexponential distributions, is proposed. The method is on the basis of the Bayesian network formulation for a DFT proposed by Yuge and Yanagi [1]. The formulation had a difficulty in calculating a sequence probability if components have nonexponential failure distributions. We propose an alternative method to obtain the sequence probability in this paper. First, a method in the case of the Erlang distribution is discussed. Then, Tijms's fitting procedure is applied to deal with a general distribution. The procedure gives a mixture of two Erlang distributions as an approximate distribution for a general distribution given the mean and standard deviation. A numerical example shows that our method works well for complex systems.

Publication: IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals Vol.E96-A No.8 pp.1730-1736

Publication Date: 2013/08/01

Publicized

Online ISSN: 1745-1337

DOI: 10.1587/transfun.E96.A.1730

Type of Manuscript: PAPER

Category: Reliability, Maintainability and Safety Analysis

Authors

Tetsushi YUGE
National Defense Academy
Shigeru YANAGI
National Defense Academy

Keyword

dynamic fault tree, Bayesian networks, sequence probability, nonexponential distribution, Weibull distribution

Cite this

Copy

Tetsushi YUGE, Shigeru YANAGI, "Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis for Systems with Nonexponential Failure Components" in IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals, vol. E96-A, no. 8, pp. 1730-1736, August 2013, doi: 10.1587/transfun.E96.A.1730.
Abstract: A method of calculating the top event probability of a fault tree, where dynamic gates and repeated events are included and the occurrences of basic events follow nonexponential distributions, is proposed. The method is on the basis of the Bayesian network formulation for a DFT proposed by Yuge and Yanagi [1]. The formulation had a difficulty in calculating a sequence probability if components have nonexponential failure distributions. We propose an alternative method to obtain the sequence probability in this paper. First, a method in the case of the Erlang distribution is discussed. Then, Tijms's fitting procedure is applied to deal with a general distribution. The procedure gives a mixture of two Erlang distributions as an approximate distribution for a general distribution given the mean and standard deviation. A numerical example shows that our method works well for complex systems.
URL: https://globals.ieice.org/en_transactions/fundamentals/10.1587/transfun.E96.A.1730/_p

Copy

@ARTICLE{e96-a_8_1730,
author={Tetsushi YUGE, Shigeru YANAGI, },
journal={IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals},
title={Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis for Systems with Nonexponential Failure Components},
year={2013},
volume={E96-A},
number={8},
pages={1730-1736},
abstract={A method of calculating the top event probability of a fault tree, where dynamic gates and repeated events are included and the occurrences of basic events follow nonexponential distributions, is proposed. The method is on the basis of the Bayesian network formulation for a DFT proposed by Yuge and Yanagi [1]. The formulation had a difficulty in calculating a sequence probability if components have nonexponential failure distributions. We propose an alternative method to obtain the sequence probability in this paper. First, a method in the case of the Erlang distribution is discussed. Then, Tijms's fitting procedure is applied to deal with a general distribution. The procedure gives a mixture of two Erlang distributions as an approximate distribution for a general distribution given the mean and standard deviation. A numerical example shows that our method works well for complex systems.},
keywords={},
doi={10.1587/transfun.E96.A.1730},
ISSN={1745-1337},
month={August},}

Copy

TY - JOUR
TI - Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis for Systems with Nonexponential Failure Components
T2 - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals
SP - 1730
EP - 1736
AU - Tetsushi YUGE
AU - Shigeru YANAGI
PY - 2013
DO - 10.1587/transfun.E96.A.1730
JO - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals
SN - 1745-1337
VL - E96-A
IS - 8
JA - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals
Y1 - August 2013
AB - A method of calculating the top event probability of a fault tree, where dynamic gates and repeated events are included and the occurrences of basic events follow nonexponential distributions, is proposed. The method is on the basis of the Bayesian network formulation for a DFT proposed by Yuge and Yanagi [1]. The formulation had a difficulty in calculating a sequence probability if components have nonexponential failure distributions. We propose an alternative method to obtain the sequence probability in this paper. First, a method in the case of the Erlang distribution is discussed. Then, Tijms's fitting procedure is applied to deal with a general distribution. The procedure gives a mixture of two Erlang distributions as an approximate distribution for a general distribution given the mean and standard deviation. A numerical example shows that our method works well for complex systems.
ER -